BANGKOK, May 6 (Reuters) – Tokyo rubber futures are expected
to stay at a relatively high level in May, with an increase in
supply likely to be offset by firm demand, a Reuters poll showed
on Friday.
The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange , currently October 2011, was forecast to stay
at 400 yen ($4.991) per kg by the end of May, according to a
median forecast of 10 analysts and dealers polled by Reuters.
That was 2.8 percent higher than April’s close of 389.1 yen
a kag, but 17 percent lower than the previous forecast of 485
yen, made in a similar poll in April.
“Thailand’s production is a key,” said a Tokyo-based dealer.
“If there is no disruption in shipments and tapping, prices
should ease. But I don’t expected prices to drop sharply.”
Tokyo rubber futures fell more than 8 percent on Friday due
to a broad sell-off in other commodities, triggered by mounting
economic concerns. [ID:nL3E7G607Z]
TOCOM prices were forecast to drop slightly to 350 yen per
kg by the end of June, the poll said.
But dealers and analysts said any falls should be limited by
worries on supply at a time when demand was likely to remain
strong.
Farmers in Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and
exporter, have resumed tapping since late April, but supply was
unlikely to rise significantly over the next few weeks as
farmers would need up to two weeks to produce, dry, then smoke
latex to create standard export-grade rubber sheet (RSS3).
Recent unseasonal heavy rains and severe floods in the
south, the country’s major rubber area, disrupted tapping, cut
off transportation and delayed some rubber shipments.
[ID:nSGE72U012]
“Chinese rubber inventories have been falling so China may
start buying again and that could help support prices,” said
another Japanese dealer.
Rubber inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange stood at 5,065 tonnes as of last week, the lowest in at
least two years. <0#SNRSTX-D-ONW>
On the fundamental front, physical rubber prices are
expected to stay below the record high of $6.40 per kg, hit in
mid-February.
Thai RSS3 was forecast to stay at $5.15 per kg by the end of
May, down from $5.70 per kg at end-April.
Malaysia SMR20 was expected to be at $4.80 per kg at the end
of May, down from $5.30 per kg, while Indonesia SIR20 could stay
at $4.60 per kg, down from $4.80 per kg at end-April.
Forecasts for TOCOM sixth-month rubber prices in yen per kg:
end-May end-June
Median 400 350
Lowest 365 300
Highest 410 410
1. Unattributable 400 300-350
2. Unattributable 400 350-400
3. Supara Rubber 410 410
4. Unattributable 380 350
5. Unattributable 400 380
6. Unattributable 380 350
7. Thai Rubber Latex 400 350
8. D.S. Futures 365 335
9. Unattributable 400 350
10. Unattributable 380 335

Forecasts for Thai RSS3 in U.S. dollar per kg:

end-May end-June
Median 5.15 5.00
Lowest 4.80 4.50
Highest 5.40 5.40
1. Supara Rubber 5.40 5.40
2. Unattributable 5.20 5.00
3. Unattributable 5.10 5.00
4. Unattributable 5.20 5.00
5. Unattributable 5.00 4.80
6. Unattributable 4.80 4.50

Forecast for Thai STR20 in U.S. dollar per kg:

end-May end-June
Median 5.00 4.75
Lowest 4.70 4.50
Highest 5.20 5.20
1. Supara Rubber 5.20 5.20
2. Unattributable 5.00 4.80
3. Unattributable 5.00 4.50
4. Unattributable 5.00 4.80
5. Unattributable 4.90 4.70
6. Unattributable 4.70 4.50

Forecasts for Malaysia SMR20 in U.S. dollar per kg:

end-May end-June
Median 4.80 4.55
Lowest 4.60 4.20
Highest 5.20 5.20
1. Supara Rubber 5.20 5.20
2. Unattributable 4.90 4.70
3. Unattributable 4.80 4.50
4. Unattirbutable 4.80 4.50
5. Unattributable 4.80 4.60
6. Unattributable 4.60 4.20

Forecasts for Indonesia SIR20 in U.S. dollar per kg:

end-May end-June
Median 4.60 4.50
Lowest 4.50 4.00
Highest 5.00 5.00
1. Supara Rubber 5.00 5.00
2. Unattributable 4.80 4.70
3. Unattributable 4.70 4.50
4. Unattributable 4.50 4.00
5. Unattributable 4.50 4.50
6. Unattributable 4.50 4.00
($1 = 80.140 Japanese yen)

Source: Reuters

Comments are closed.